This is the first time that Mexico could get a woman president. Joe Biden is seeking a second term in the United States. The Democratic People’s Party in Taiwan has just won a historic third consecutive term. The fourth most populous country in the world, Indonesia, will elect a new President soon. Sheikh Hasina has won a fifth term in Bangladesh.
In 2024, national elections are scheduled in over 60 countries. Two billion voters will cast their votes. That’s a quarter of the world’s population.
This is a “super election year”. Election booths will be buzzing in the United States, the United Kingdom, India and Indonesia. Psephologists and political enthusiasts will gleefully witness the dynamics of power, democracy, and unpredictability as elections play out on a global scale. Those suffering from politicophobia (a morbid fear of politics and voting) would prefer to fast forward to 2025.
One dominant theme emerges from elections being held across the globe this year — societal divisions have been laid bare. From the deeply polarising issue of abortion rights to the contentious debate over corporatisation in agriculture, the fault lines are stark. Many of these elections, including India’s, are not just about choosing leaders; they are about deciding the direction of societies ruptured by conflicting ideologies.
United Kingdom: Bookmakers’ odds are often dependable barometers to predict results in sport and politics. Even though elections in the UK are expected to be held in the latter half of 2024, British bookmakers have virtually already called the result. According to Ladbrokes, one of England’s oldest betting companies, the Labour Party, led by Keir Starmer, are clear favourites to win, with odds of 1/10. To give you some sense of what 1/10 odds mean, let me share a similar example from cricket.
If India is playing Afghanistan in a T20 match, India will probably start at the odds of 1/10 — favourites to win. In other words, if you invest £1,000 on the Labour Party winning, you only stand to gain £100. So, as far as the bookmakers are concerned, it’s pretty much a done deal for the Labour Party. In contrast, the Conservative Party led by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, has odds of 6/1. What this means is that a £1,000 bet on the Conservative Party will earn a huge £6,000 if the Conservatives win. The populist right-wing party Reform UK (earlier Brexit party), led by Richard Tice, are a distant third with odds of 50/1. It must be pointed out that there are multiple examples where favourites bite the dust.
United States: Trump versus Biden rematch. The economy, cost of living, LGBTQ rights, the war in Ukraine, and conflict in Gaza are some of the hot-button issues which are dominating political debate on American television. From campaign rallies to made-for-television debates, one flashpoint is certainly abortion rights.
The seismic 2021 overturning of Roe v. Wade and the Alabama Supreme Court’s controversial decision equating frozen embryos with children have intensified the cultural chasm between conservative and liberal states. Abortion has surged to the forefront of political discourse, with one in eight voters deeming it critical. Research indicates a doubling since 2020 in patients travelling for abortions, with medical abortions now exceeding half of all procedures.
These have had a profound impact on reproductive rights, stirring voter mobilisation and accentuating enduring ideological divisions. As both the controversial Donald Trump and the octogenarian President Biden line up on the starting blocks for second terms, abortion rights might determine who crosses the finishing line first.
South Africa: In a historic shift post-apartheid, South Africa’s upcoming general election on May 29 could see the African National Congress (ANC) receiving less than 50 per cent of the vote for the first time since 1994. I am no psephologist, but this could lead to a multi-party government, marking a significant moment for South Africans and the region.
India: The last five years have seen the country set many dubious records. Household savings have been at a 50-year low. Three out of four Indians cannot afford a healthy balanced diet. Four out of 10 graduates under the age of 25 are unemployed. Women earn just 60 per cent as compared to their male counterparts. And the Press Freedom Index ranks India 161 among 180 countries. These are the issues which the ruling dispensation will obfuscate. These are the issues which opposition parties across the country will need to amplify. These are the issues which television channels turned cheerleaders will ignore over the next six weeks.
Instead, the Union government will attempt to create a narrative around two laws — the Citizenship (Amendment) Act and the Women’s Reservation Bill. You don’t have to be a Parliament junkie to know that the timing is suspect. Consider these: While the average time taken to frame rules for a law is nine months, the rules for CAA were notified after 51 months (over four years). The Union government had asked for nine extensions. Then there was the Women’s Reservation Bill, passed in Parliament, but which can only be implemented after the Census and delimitation is carried out. 2034?
As the world’s largest democracy goes to elections in the summer of 2024, women’s political representation will only be limited to the glossy sheets of a slickly printed manifesto.
[This article was also published in The Indian Express | Friday, March 15, 2024]